Monday, January 28, 2013

About this Website

So this is the final post, the idiots just wanted to summarize the whole site for anybody new who hasn't been following along and arrives to find millions of wierd trading posts very clearly written by idiots.

Basically, Garth Turner has a very bad attitude on his own blog, censoring and deleting any comments that contain facts that significantly challenge his ongoing sales effort. This is ok, if not exactly good internet etiquette, as it is after all his blog and financial sales business, but for one with such a poor track record himself, he shouldn't really be saying things like this:
"Day traders are idiots. Professional stock brokers are going deservedly extinct. 
...And don’t get me started on mutual fund salesguys"
Because if he hadn't, a certain bunch of idiots who all thought he is a fool anyway, half of whom have personally been censored over the years themselves, wouldn't have decided to get together and research his history accurately, document it all thoroughly, and  then leave it out there for anybody to draw their own conclusions as a permanent internet slap to his ego, just because they could. 

But that is exactly what happened. Where it started to take on a life of it's own was when the research started to show that almost everything the idiots ever found out about Turner predicting, was ultimately wrong.

The more they looked, the more they found, all wrong. They even asked Google if  "Garth Turner was right" - much hilarity ensued

They went back and looked at likely payouts simply by fading his advice over the years and realized (seriously) an Anti-Turner ETF running since the 80s would be a $billion fund, with one perfect trade after another.  

One Saturday morning in 2013 one of the idiots read that he was bullish on stocks (at the top, obviously, like every contrarian investor lol) and so the idiots took an immediate theoretical short position in opposition.

When the markets opened the next week and the Dow plummeted 100 points in 2 days, the idiots decided he still has the magic, and they should seriously have a look at equities in case "Turner's Top " as it came to be known was about to become very profitable.  

So the idiots then live (test) traded the DOW & S&P  side by side in the ETF and made + 28.89% in the first three weeks (two really, as week 1 was a stopout at breakeven).  Not bad, huh? :)  

Its more than the last 3 years "balanced portfolio growth" Turner is always going on about, in two weeks, banked secure and risk free, again, unlike a balanced portfolio. To be fair, the idiots didn't make that much because equities subsequently  fell, they actually made that much trading them against the trend for a laugh, applying basic market principles to new markets turned out much easier than any idiots originally thought.

Over the 2 week period, holders of stocks are +3% up, which could be back to 0% or negative by the end of the week..

Meanwhile a bunch of idiots extracted +28.8% straight out of the accounts of buyers, while waiting for it to actually run  the way we are pointing.

The main point to grasp here is that buying stocks at 50:50 risk reward proposition is a Fool's Game only.

You will not find smart money or (successful) idiots taking this bet, ever.

Note: it's +28.89% now, few  one more days trading since then..

So anyway, the last stuff that will get done on the site is another page with all the Turner predictions posts on, and one with all the trading posts for easier navigation as it ages.  Other than that if you are looking for something specific, try the custom search box top right, it works very well. 

The idiots are going back to doing what they normally do now, only they'll be continuing to short equities too moving forwards all the way up to the top and all the way back down, so think of us whenever you see those big red lines   :) 

Update (29-Jan-2013) 
Applying these trades to the ETF previous account figures gives us:
ETF Total   $143991 or +43.99% IN ONE MONTH

The Soon-To-Be Legendary Anti_Turner ETF is here

Finally, the ETF was planning on trading Silver last week too, as per here, but the trade did not set up in time..

However this week it did and has just hit TP1 ($1 or 100pts) in real life,#Silver #Idiots action @ bottom of page 

Update (30-Jan-2013)These win figures applied to the ETF account leave us at a stunning:

ETF Total Now $163991 or +63.99% in one month

with approx another $22k in Open (unbanked) float at $32.xx. 
Some of the real idiots silver trades hit trailing stops on the remainder (01-31) at $31.71 (91pts) 
For the sake of the ETF idiots will remain in, 20k long from  $30.80 stop at breakeven. 

Stay tuned for Turner vs #Silver #Idiots #2013
Can ONE (remaining) 20k Oz long trade on 28th January whoop another three year's  balanced portfolio growth in #2013 all on it's own? :)

#Laters #Foolz

The Smart Money, The Idiots & The Fools

Ok, so hopefully now having demonstrated to anybody who has taken the time to read through the bountiful trading posts that these idiots have a reasonable (better than the average blog dog, we would wager :) grasp of how it works, if no conclusive proof as to the reasons (they suspect as to) why, the idiots thought a broader view of how it all appears to fit together (to an idiot) might be useful to some. 


"What the fool believes he sees, the wise man idiot has the power, to reason away.."

There are three types of players of the money game, smart money, idiots and fools.

The Smart Money
I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this: I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. – Baron Rothschild, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
To start with, understand that you cannot "be" smart money, without having smart money. You need to have almost infinite resources available, the financial power to trend markets, and to design develop and deploy terminators.

(There has been a lot of jesting about "Termy" as he's affectionately known to the idiots who joust with him daily, however the idiots are deadly serious - Nanex is the authority, but there's a decent overview with cool pics here - Only yesterday Terminators were active in the closing seconds of AAPL. How many fools bought it at $500-700+ and have been seriously banked over a one year cycle, never mind in the closing milliseconds of the day yesterday?  Terminator is very much out there.) 
Otherwise you are just smart, and more likely an idiot than a fool. On the other hand not all "money" is smart, in fact quite the opposite. The fundamental thing to understand is that the smarts drive the market trend. They are always  the other side of the helix from the idiots and fools, and if idiots and fools are buying, smart money is selling to them.

Logically therefore, if smart money is selling something that is going up, they are losing on that trade, all the time it continues going up..?  And smart money, does not lose.  So having been selling into all the buying pressure all the way up, eventually the buyers will run out, the trend reverses, and idiots and fools get banked.  Was the trend actually your friend after all?

This Terminator manoeuvre is known as "Crazy Ivan"
This same cycle plays out everywhere there is financial activity, but nowhere is it more apparent than electronic "Markets". The cycle plays continually and forever, at all levels, from patterns that repeat every few minutes, through hours, days, weeks and years.  Smart money is also old money and play a very long inter-generational game too. 

This cycle is fundamental to understanding the way it works. You may dismiss it as conspiracy theory if you like, but this understanding is the basis of our trading system, which we think have shown, also, mostly works

The Idiots - "The Power to Reason Away"  

Idiots may or may not be smart. Many are not that bright. Many idiots are no better off than fools ultimately, for a greater understanding does not help them if not applied effectively. Many successful idiots are also just lucky, right place and time, or school and upbringing etc.

What successful  idiots mostly have, that fools do not, is the ability to see past the facade and grasp at least some of what the game actually is, although inability to actually do anything about it is often the downfall of many idiots.

However, the one thing all successful idiots do appreciate that fools do not, is that the only way to win longterm is to try and play the way the smarts play. Which is easier said than done, given the lack of smarts, and money, and you cannot find out what "smart money" is doing, by reading  it in Investors Weekly at Starbucks.

What you have seen here this last two weeks is a raw display of the retraining of every natural instinct common to humans, that is required to become a successful idiot, i.e. when something is going up, fools rush to buy.. 

These idiots instead ask, "who is selling?"

Until you have tried pressing a button to activate a short into a spiking market and watching your money vaporize into the ether in seconds a few times, it is very difficult to understand quite how hard "selling high" can be. 

(NB: SilverMan's post - this particular idiot is most likely richer than anybody you know)
And here is the same chart after the patiently lurking idiot interception and on the way back up..

Which leads us nicely onto..

The Fools. An unfortunate statistic says that 95% of the world are in this category.

That means 95 out of 100 of you reading this are, which of you think you are in the 5%?   How are your critical thinking skills? Fancy trying your hand against the market? It would be quite an eye opener, the idiots assure you.

The Fool's primary problem is that he thinks that he is wise. Fools believe what they read, and think they understand all that they see, and can make total sense of the world around them. They court audiences and delight in explaining the mysteries of the world to less "fortunate" others.

Only fools think they can predict longterm outcomes from an irrational, unstable, dynamic and chaotic system. Maths and probability theory applied to this scenario suggests otherwise, never mind history.

So secure in his deep knowledge and understanding of the world and all things around him (information supplied by smart money enterprises™ ) he boldly predicts the future and acts upon his visions.

Many will delight in bragging about their investments for a while, then go quiet for a year or two when caught in yet another foolish bursting bubble, only to reinvent themselves again on the next crest, as having always been successful and correct about the future, and think no one will notice. (idiots might)

Now it is true some fools just get lucky (right place right time) and some do ok by dogged hard work, e.g. flipping houses into a continually rising market for years, however if they are ultimately caught by the bursting bubble, they're definitely just fools who were lucky for a while.

Most fools might even notice prices rising for a time, but not act until Auntie Maud at the filling station mentions she just bought some, "and look the price is going up after all.."

A fool and his money ARE easily parted.  Statistically fools buy high, and sell low. The fools who trade (trainee idiots) are the "Stupids" we've referred to in the trading pics, they are buying above the stupids line and getting banked. As their longs are stopped out and they are selling back lower, we sold high and buy back from them.  

People say it's almost impossible to "time the market". Well actually :) - not if you know what you're doing it isn't, but over the long term it is very difficult to beat the market, fortunately for idiots it's quite easy to tag along with it as banks the fools sometimes. Like the fat friends meeting a bear (terminator) in the woods, idiots don't have to run faster than the bear, just faster than the fools.

Understand, this is 90+% of all (non market-making) traders on the losing side, your Mutual Funds, your Pension Funds your "Portfolio Re-balancers" etc, just because somebody does it for a living, does not mean they always win, far from it. Often they could care less, its not their money, they just get another job somewhere else.

These idiots make every effort to be facing 180 degrees to the stupids at all times, and are selling above the stupids line, betting against the fools, in line with the (hopefully) inevitable banking trip to come.

Its really not so hard to understand, at least not unless you are a total fool. 

Real Idiot Update

The week just started off too well not to..  :)

Click to enlarge the Idiocy

Mr Turner, the idiots salute you. 

NB apologies if the idiots actually took anybody's money for real today, its not personal, you're just the opposition, and the idiots have been trying to warn you. Idiots aren't generally all that big on predictions about the future, but there is one that they would make and stick by, and that is that in the (comparatively well informed) opinion of a bunch of idiots:

The majority of you can never win this game. it's best just not to play with stocks.

This was definitely the idiot swansong, they just wanted to let you know it's all good. To see the final figures of these trades applied to the ETF at the right risk reward levels, see The Anti_Turner ETF

ETF Total   $143991 or +43.99% IN ONE MONTH

With 52 contracts total still short stops at breakeven ie NO RISK

What a phenomenal bunch of f'in idiots

01 Feb 2013 End of Week 4
And finally a Friday round up of the week's real idiot silver Action 

Some of the real idiots silver trades hit trailing stops on the remainder (01-31) at $31.71 (91pts) 
For the sake of the ETF idiots will remain in, 20k long from  $30.80 stop at breakeven.

Idiots think if you haven't got the idea by now, you're always going to be a fool..

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Will He Never Learn?

Intelligence suggests that Mr Turner has probably seen this blog, although as it on blogspot its difficult to be certain. 

Then again, maybe not yet, as this is actually quite unbelievable, given Turner's 100% perfect record of always being wrong on stocks calls, from the 1987 crash where he said "stay out" at the very bottom,  through the tech bubble (Nortel)  through the Mutual Funds sales years, and DOW 30k call in 1999the crash of 2002, again in 2006, you would really think he would know better than to be advising people to buy into the S&P at just about the top of the range, once more..
On Thursday, while Apple stock was being slaughtered, most major US stock markets went up. In fact the S&P 500 is ahead 4.81% in the last three weeks, and 13.7% in the past year. It’s at a level last seen five years ago, and 4% below its all-time peak. The Dow is even closer, dangling just 2% under its best-ever showing in the autumn of 2007. 
Uh huh. Is he really saying what these idiots think he's saying? He wants to buy at the top again, doesn't he? As reasonably skilled short-side trading idiots, the data he presents above is tantalizing to us, and of course we will need buyers to mug sell to at the very top :)
This advance has come because of corporate profits and economic growth. Of companies reporting Q4 earnings, like Google and IBM, 73% of them have beat expectations. The latest jobless claims numbers shocked because they were so positive, dropping to a five-year low. In Washington the debt ceiling debate’s turned into the non-event it was always destined to be. In China, manufacturing is growing at the fastest rate in two years. American real estate has bounced off the bottom three years sooner than expected with almost all major markets showing higher sales, rising prices and surging construction. Unemployment across the US is now lower than it is in Toronto, and people in Chicago or Boston can actually afford to buy detached houses in a major city.  
This advance has actually come from  trillions in excess reserves the banks are holding rehypothecating and gambling in derivatives, and surging liquidity from never-ending and parabolically accelerating stimulus.

Only a fool could believe there is a recovery based on fundamentals and try to convince others his plan is the bestest plan once more
In short, smart people want to own this growth.
In short, however would Turner know what "smart" people want ? 
It’s what I told you to expect a year ago when I sent the metalheads, doomers and Depends set into gales of laughter with my ‘don’t bet against America’ routine. Despite its debt and deficit challenges, the US will only augment each month in terms of GDP, jobs created, corporate profits and consumer spending. There will certainly be volatility for investors, but the road ahead seems clear.
Quick question, are these "guaranteed predictions" like in 2006, we wonder as he said that then too, and could not really have been more wrong. 
..A vibrant energy sector, with a pivotal election behind it, and with a strengthening American economy, our financial markets will build on the success of last year, and head straight into uncharted territory.  Garth Turner Jan 2006

When challenged by almost certainly the most intelligent of the blog dogs: 

#29 Canadian Watchdog on 01.24.13 at 10:12 pm
Buy S&P right here right? Once, twice… you know the rest, unless you believe it really is different this time again.
As part of a diversified portfolio, absolutely. — Garth

And here we have it, the whole purpose of the post, the pumping of the "balanced portfolio" :)

#39 AK on 01.24.13 at 10:28 pm
#28 Canadian Watchdog on 01.24.13 at 10:12 pm
“Buy S&P right here right? Once, twice… you know the rest, unless you believe it really is different this time again.”
The S&P 500 today is cheaper than it was back in 2007.
Buying and holding only succeeds with continual rebalancing. In the case of the S&P, this has yielded very substantial gains over this period of time. — Garth
With of course, the magical mystical secret to wealth, that only Turner knows, "Rebalancing"  or "trading" as it's known by everyone else.  

With his highly tuned "re-balancing" skills, what could possibly go wrong?  

Continual rebalancing as well now, maybe he could give the idiots a lesson or two in "contrarian trading"  (idiotsLMFAO) !!!!! 

#70 Canadian Watchdog on 01.24.13 at 11:20 pm
#39 AK
The S&P 500 today is cheaper than it was back in 2007.
And ten times more fragile, more concentrated and dominated by high-frequency traders that will suck your profits in nanoseconds when the time comes.
You said that last year. — Garth

Because a year is such a long time, he couldn't possibly have been right all that time ago, could he?  It gives us idiots great pleasure to know Turner is still firmly long at the top, as some of the money we extract from fools might actually be from his balanced diversified portfolios :) 

This is the ONLY equities idiots care about, because ask yourself, where did this money come from?

Note error on chart label, figures are end of trade round ups, not end of day strictly, although most were.

Week 3 Trading Round Up

 (Account size 100%)
A suitable target would be +10-20% of the account size from this call over the next few weeks..

25th Jan 2013  Account size: $128891 or +28.89% 

As with last week the statistical analysis idiots always want to pore over how it could have been better, although their adjustments to TP levels from last weeks stats didn't seem to hurt too much so the rest of the idiots tolerate their nonsense.

Week 3 trade stats compared to last weeks (in)

Trades taken: 16  - each trade has three potential profit levels, or can be stopped out at breakeven or a loss

  • Trade + TP1:      8   (4)
  • Trade + TP2:      1   (1)
  • Trade + TP3:      0  
  • Stopped (even): 8 - every single one of these was in profit, & gave it back holding out for more
  • Stopped (loss):   5 
  • Max total risk at any one time  3%. (4%)   Usual risk 2-3% (1-2%)
  • Account +/-  +18.84%   (10.05%)   (+87%!! - do we get a bonus?)
  • Total trades win rate: 8 / 16 or 50%   (57%) 
  • Total (tranche) win rate 9 / 48 possible tranche wins = 18.75%  (23.8%)
  • Max Risk / Real win ratio:  18.84 / 3  =  6.28 : 1  (2.53:1)
Nobody can be arsed to go through a blow-by-blow account, its all in the ETF, but  in summary we had 8 of 16 trades hit TP1, one of them went on to hit TP2, five losses, and multiple part tranches come back and get stopped out at zero. (again) 

Did the floor fall out from under our shorts this week? No. Did we even more methodically bank money than last week, whilst waiting for a/the big win?  

And what's going on here then? ..Won only 50% instead of last weeks 57%, yet banked 87% more? 
What kind of witchcraft is this? :)  
Welcome to the world of trading risk management analysis and optimization by those who do know what they are talking about. A higher activity rate whilst systematically tuning the plan to fit the range of the market better, means idiots can tighten stop-losses with more confidence, thereby increasing position size, while maintaining the same absolute risk, and hugely increasing risk:reward. 

Tuning TPs to extract a higher percentage of cash from the winners, and increasing confidence in setups as idiots get to know the market better (two weeks LOL!) helped too. 

This week meant less wins, more losses, and way better money.

Idiots still gave back plenty of potential money at zero at times, and took 5% total losses in a series of separate 1% ish hits, but this week it is easier to see how idiots intend the bigger scheme to play out.  The point is, idiots are not scared of losses, as they are limited, and required in the maths. 

If next week when idiots are doing this live, the market turns and a few of these yellow "stopped at zeros" suddenly become TP3s and  2-300 point runners, idiots might even send a thank you present to Turner.  

If it does not, does anybody really doubt the idiots are happy to just plod away taking money directly out fools bank accounts until it does?  

If the AT_ETF had started trading with a $1 million client on Jan 1st 2013, said client would now be +$288910 up, banked and secure, RISK FREE. 

Maybe some can now possibly start to see why Turner's (utterly clueless about actual risk) comments about daytraders being idiots and "courting risk" irked and motivated these idiots into action. 

Here's the equity curve plotted, this is the ONLY equities idiots are interested in, because ask yourself, where did this money come from?

Friday, January 25, 2013

Thank You and Goodnight..

So today brings the live trading display to a close, the ETF Page is now an internet shrine to idiocy at it's finest

None of these idiots in their wildest dreams thought it would be so easy to apply general market knowledge to new markets and blitz it out of the park, over the golf course and straight through a brick wall in basically two weeks of live (theoretical of course) trading. 

Idiots have treated it as though it was 100% real and been scrupulously fair and accurate in the live trading, and although obviously in real trading idiots have to account for spread in stop losses etc, (we do) the idiots hope people can see they have a reasonable grasp of market action, even if we do think it's all one big computer game.

It has been quite a team effort and all the idiots have been bang on it, because of course unknown idiots always have something to prove, and in this case the desire was only to prove that not everybody who visits Mr Turner's blog comments is a fool. 

Today's trading commentary from the the ETF page is copied below, and the idiots think it speaks for itself, although the idiots highly recommend people visit the page itself and read the last paragraph carefully.

Update 25th Jan 2013
Remaining 15 contracts on DOW stopped at breakeven. thinking about reloading once more..
Update - back, might be too early, we shall see
  • Short DOW @ 13871  61 contracts at 20pts = 1% risk

Update - (Yesterday's)  Final 15 S&P contracts stopped at breakeven 
This below is basically the idiots regular bet.. only that the Market will bank the money of fools

( in shall the idiots kick the granny out of it with high leverage for their daily cheek)

Update MORE TRADING: Adding to shorts at high leverage and tight stops 
  • Short S&P 1502.1  - 100 contracts 10pt stop <1% risk
  • Short DOW 13882 - 135 contracts 9pt stop 1% risk
Total account risk with previous DOW short still in play approx 3%

Update S&P TP1 20 pts x 80 contracts = +$1600

AT_ETF  $123525 + $1600 = $125125 or +25.1% 

Still short 20 S&P and 196 DOW :) @ 2% account risk

Update DOW TP1 20pts x 100 contracts = +$2000
AT_ETF  $125125 +$2000 = $127125 or +27.1% 

Still short 20 S&P and 96 DOW @ 1% account risk

Update Remaining 20 S&P stopped at breakeven. To. The. Pip.
96 DOW @ 1% risk still in play

Update DOW TP2 35 contracts x 40 pts = +$1400

AT_ETF  $127125 +$1400 =$128525 or +28.52% 

Still short Original 61 DOW @ 1% account risk

Read it and weep fools ;)

Update 25-Jan 2013 - This is probably the final Update in here now.
Dow trade scratched at +$366 (6pts) rather than maybe take a 1% loss

AT_ETF $128525  +$366 = $128891 or +28.89% 



Well we certainly had a laugh.. the rest at the Anti-Turner ETF 

The site will now get a couple more idiotic posts to round things up and then become an internet shrine to Mr Turner, as seen by a bunch of idiots, because the idiots do actually have better things to do, like new places to mug money off fools (and for that we thank Mr Turner's bullish stocks calls greatly) but this did need doing and these idiots wanted to do it. 

Thank you and goodnight.